Tonight, I noticed that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has won the straw poll at the annual Value Voters Summit in Washington, D.C.  Coming in second with less than half the votes Huckabee won was former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty came in third, one vote ahead of former Alaska Gov. Palin who finished a single vote ahead of Indiana Rep. Mike Pence.  On a ballot of nine Republicans, all of the top five finishers, save Palin, were the only speakers included on the ballot. Thus, it is safe to assume that speakers had a great advantage among the almost six hundred voters at the Value Voters Summit.

While I believe that polls can prove to be a valuable source indicating which candidates might do well, I think it is only prudent to remind people that the next presidential campaign is still a ways off, and yet is closer than ever.

As we observed last year, campaigns begin to gear up earlier than the previous cycle.  One election is barely finished and the victors inaugurated and sworn in, and already we are looking towards whether this straw poll suggests Huckabee might run again.

While columnists and bloggers are busy wondering about it, I just have to say that there is still a lot of time between now and the next presidential cycle. Things can happen.  Politicians can shock us, transform themselves, and find some way to catapult themselves to the front of the pack or disappear into obscurity.

In addition to the amount of time between now and the next election cycle, we must also keep in mind the small sample size of these polls.  Sure there are a number of polls that have fairly small samples, but what we must keep in mind is that this straw poll’s sampling was that the sample was from a group of religious and social conservatives.

While, no doubt, the conservative and religious right play a significant role in elections, it would have seemed that they lost much of their power and momentum in the last cycle.  During the primary the conservative movement in the Republican Party fractured, and the result was that a moderate Republican won the nomination.

Thus, despite the power of any movement within a party, things can always go awry and the strongest candidate with the most support might not be the candidate whom appeared to be strongest at the start.

It is still early.  Let’s be careful about which basket we start to place our eggs in, and let’s not jump to conclusions that Huckabee must be the champion of the religious right in the next election cycle.  Nor should we conclude that one of these five politicians are where our hope lies either.

Personally, I do not consider myself a member of the religious right, or a social conservative. I am rather moderate on social issues.  There are many other factors to take into consideration when we look at candidates, from their stances on fiscal responsibility, the size and scope of government, social issues, individual liberties and opportunity.

Even though Huckabee might have polled well at the Value Voters Summit, he might not be the right man with the right combination of stances on all of the issues, not just the social ones, that Republicans want to put forward in the next presidential contest.